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What does PoF mean?
Daily probability of at least one MODIS active-fire detection within an approximately 9 × 9 km grid cell, used as a proxy for fire occurrence.
Not ignition probability, burned area, or intensity. Low probabilities do not mean no fire risk. Skill varies by region and lead time; the paper finds useful skill up to 10 days, with longer skill in some regions.
McNorton et al. (2024)
Research information, not an emergency warning service. Follow local authorities for safety advice.